Experts stay optimistic about economy

Local economists are maintaining that the national economy in 2009 is better off than many think, particularly amid the global economic situation.

The Head of Research under the Hanoi Socio-Economic Development Research Institute Nguyen Minh Phong told the Vietnam News Agency that Vietnam’s economy has shown positive signs of potentially stronger growth in the second half of the year.

Former State Bank of Vietnam Governor Le Duc Thuy said in a recent interview with the online newspaper VnExpress that the downturn had reached the bottom in the first quarter, and expects that the economy will start to improve in the near future.

“This is because the situation in Vietnam is not a crisis, but simply a downturn,” explained the economist.

The first government bailout package, which was launched in late January, has shown initial success. As a result, many enterprises, particularly small and medium-sized, have managed to implement several projects and some have announced they are again recruiting workers.

Declining foreign investment inflows are also showing signs of improvement, as they were only at a 4 fold year-on-year decline in March against an 8 fold decline in January.

Industrial production output has increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter despite numerous difficulties, while retail and service revenues surged by 22 percent.

Also, the government recently launched its second stimulus package to subsidise loan interest from April 1 this year to the end of December, 2011.

The move is aimed at infrastructure development, which Phong said will help enterprises cut production costs.

As for prospects for the national economy in the coming time, Thuy said the government’s recent adjustment of the growth rate to 5 percent for 2009 is within the range of predictions made by several international financial institutions, including Standard Chartered, the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the International Monetary Fund.

(Nguồn: VietNamNet/VNA)